El Niño threatens West African cocoa recovery
Cocoa markets are bracing for renewed turbulence. El Niño, expected to intensify in the second half of 2026, now clouds the recovery outlook for West African production.
Prices have already reacted sharply. London and New York markets recorded six-month highs on July 9, reaching $6,094 and £4,521 per tonne respectively. The upward trend could accelerate further.
Producers hoped for a return to surplus during the 2025/2026 season. Improved harvest projections from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana fueled those expectations.
However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now forecasts one of the most intense El Niño episodes in 75 years.
The region faces a familiar threat. During the previous El Niño in 2023/2024, excessive rainfall devastated crops. Intense heat and dry Harmattan winds followed. That combination triggered historic price spikes.
Current weather patterns offer worrying parallels. Ghana experienced heavy June rainfall that destroyed blossoms and accelerated black pod disease.
Theophilus Tamakloe, vice-president of a national farmers’ association, told Reuters that COCOBOD must approve fungicide releases quickly to prevent widespread crop losses.
Côte d’Ivoire also endured heavy downpours in June across multiple production zones.
The Coffee-Cocoa Council consequently slowed forward sales for the 2026/2027 main season.
The country has already sold approximately 1.15 million tonnes. Regulators seek to avoid overcommitting beyond actual harvest capacity.
Analysts now project Ivorian production could fall to 1.7-1.8 million tonnes in 2026/2027, down from nearly 2.2 million tonnes in the previous season. Futures markets await clearer signals.
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